Managers undermining role of luck in success or failure of a business

and are seriously underestimating the role luck plays in the success, or failure, of a business, according to a new study into luck. Despite their best efforts, individuals and organisations can find it difficult to predict the consequences of their initiatives, according to Chengwei Liu, associate professor of strategy and behavioural science at Warwick Business School. While people appreciate the role of bad luck in failures, they do not necessarily do the same when it comes to explaining success. Liu added that we have the conceptual tools to help better understand the role of luck in organisational life. In the paper titled Good Night, and Good Luck: Perspectives on Luck in Scholarship, Liu and Mark de Rond from Cambridge Judge Business School argue that bestselling books on and case studies in business school education focusing on the top performers and how to move from “good to great” are taking the wrong approach.


Chengwei Liu
Associate Professor of Strategy and Behavioural Science